IGF 2019 WS #131 Quantifying Peace and Conflict in Cyberspace

Description: Instability in cyberspace is rising with the increasing number of countries and non-state actors weaponizing technology. Today, the threats posed by cyber-attacks have the potential to disrupt everything from critical infrastructure, to elections, to the societal structures of our everyday lives. Despite the fact that cybersecurity touches news headlines and diplomatic agendas around the world, there has been limited progress on understanding the impact of conflict in cyberspace on the functioning of society. Moreover, even less is understood regarding the relationship and interdependencies between business, peace, prosperity, culture, economy and politics in cybersecurity. Efforts to measure peace, such as the index compiled annually by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), allows us to assess the social, political, and economic factors that create peace. Over the past several years, progress has been made in measuring the various indicators associated with violence, conventional weapons proliferation, crime and armed conflict, which has helped governments make more informed decisions regarding public policies. An accurate diagnosis is the basis for an effective policy response – and yet, to date, limited progress has been made on accurately measuring the impact of cyber conflict on society. For example, Northern and Western Europe often appear at the top of the lists in rankings of peaceful countries, how would those rankings differ if measured only on their levels of cyber peace? Panelists will discuss efforts such as the Diplo Foundation’s Data Diplomacy project and the IEP’s framework of measuring Positive Peace, which describes the attitudes, structures and institutions that underpin and sustain peaceful societies. Drawing from the various data-backed approaches to public policy, this panel will discuss what is needed to create and measure Positive Peace in cyberspace. The conversation is intended to bring together experts on peace and cybersecurity to exchange views and reflect on the opportunities for quantifying peace in cyberspace in order to better inform policy decisions. Proposed agenda - Tutorial: Using open source data to quantify global peace (10 minutes) o How to measure peace o Findings from the 2018 Global Peace Index - Roundtable discussion: How to measure peace in cyberspace (30 minutes) o Trends in cyber conflict today o Data indicators for cyber conflict, from cyber crime to development of cyber weapons to the prevalence of legislative and institutional frameworks on cyberecurity o What role can civil society, SMEs and the tech industry have in creating more peace in cyberspace? - Open Mic Session (10 minutes) - Conclusion: What is the path forward towards creating an index for measuring peace and conflict in cyberspace? (10 minutes)

Expected Outcomes: This workshop is designed to provide input into the existing data sources and identify remaining gaps that contribute to the lack of understanding around the quantifiable impact of threats in cyberspace. The panelists will discuss the benefit of a global cyber peace index and how its findings may or may not differ from mappings of global peace against traditional forms of conflict.